In the four years since their last Super
Bowl
Authentic
Isaiah Wynn Jersey , the New England Patriots re-invented themselves,
particularly on offense. Instead of the spread, the team was carried by the two
tight end set featuring Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. What did not chance
since 2007, was the success of the offense. While the 2007 squad had arguably
the best offensive unit of all time, the 2011 version was pretty formidable in
its own right.The Patriots, after starting the year 5-3, went on an eight game
winning streak before entering the playoffs as the conference¡¯s number one seed.
In the first game, the team dismantled the Denver Broncos before facing the
Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round.New England won the game 23-20 ¡ª thanks
to a Sterling Moore strip and a missed field goal ¡ª but Rob Gronkowski, straight
off the statistically most dominant season a receiving tight end has ever had up
to that point, injured his ankle. The injury would clearly affect the Patriots¡¯
most dangerous weapon two weeks later.Super Bowl XLVI: New York Giants vs. New
England PatriotsDate: February 5, 2012Stadium: LucasOil Stadium, Indianapolis
INFinal Score: New York Giants 21, New England Patriots 17Super Bowl XLVI
started in the worst possible way for New England. After forcing a Giants punt,
the Patriots began their first possession on their own 6-yard line. On their
very first offensive play of the game, however, Tom Brady was flagged for
intentional grounding in the end
zone
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would get even worse before the first quarter was over. First, a Brandon Spikes
fumble recovery was called back due to a penalty for having 12 men on the field.
Two plays later, Eli Manning found Victor Cruz for a 2-yard touchdown to give
New York a 9-0 lead. The Patriots finally got some momentum on their next drive,
which ended with a 29-yard Stephen Gostkowski field goal to make it a 9-3 game
early in the second quarter.The Patriots would close out the first half tying
the longest touchdown drive in Super Bowl history. The team went 96 yards in
four minutes to take a 10-9 lead thanks to a 4-yard Tom Brady touchdown pass to
Danny Woodhead.New England would open the second half with another touchdown
drive: Tom Brady connected with Aaron Hernandez to extend the Patriots¡¯ lead to
17-9. However, it would be the last time the team scored in Super Bowl
XLVI.After two Giants¡¯ field goals, the teams headed into the fourth quarter at
17-15 in New England¡¯s favor. On the second play of the quarter, Tom Brady threw
an interception intended for Gronkowski, who was bothered by an ankle injury and
finished the game with only two catches and 26 receiving yards (working mostly
as a decoy). Due to the Giants¡¯ inability to turn the turnover into points, the
Patriots got the ball back with 9:24 left in the game and a chance to
potentially expand their lead. However, the drive stalled at the Giants¡¯ 44-yard
line with less than three minutes to go.Just like four years earlier, the
defense had a chance to stop the Giants late in the game. Just like four years
earlier, the Giants marched down the field to score a game-winning touchdown.
For the second time in a four-year span, the Patriots lost a Super Bowl to the
Giants ¡ª once again getting close, but not close enough, to the elusive fourth
ring.They had a good chance to get it in 2006, but collapsed in the AFC
Championship Game. They had shots at it in 2007 and
2011
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would take three more seasons for them to get another chance to earn it. On
Sunday, the New England Patriots will finally enter the NFL playoffs when they
host the Los Angeles Chargers at Gillette Stadium. To further analyze this
week¡¯s matchup and find out how New England can duplicate its success, let¡¯s
take a look at some of the advanced stats heading into the game (courtesy of SB
Nation¡¯s Bill Connelly; for his methodology please click here).Patriots offense
vs Chargers defenseNormal down and distance in the open fieldPatriots offense
(l.) vs Chargers defense (r.)The first statistic we¡¯re looking at today already
shows a common theme: New England and Los Angeles are rather evenly matched up,
no matter which units square off. In regard to the battle between the Patriots
offense and the Chargers defense in the open field, we can see that both teams
are faring well when it comes to success rate ¡ª gaining 50% of necessary yardage
on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth down ¡ª but are
inconsistent when it comes to big plays and on third down.Backed Up Situations
Near the Goal LinePatriots offense (l.) vs Chargers defense (r.)New England¡¯s
offensive success rate when backed up near its own goal line is nothing to write
home about ¡ª but still better than what the Chargers defense is doing in such
situations, except when it comes to turnovers. Speaking of which: the Patriots
had one of them this season, a tipped interception in week one. Otherwise they
have taken care of the football very well when starting in unfavorable field
position.Red ZonePatriots offense (l.) vs Chargers defense (r.)This will be a
key area for the Patriots on Sunday. After going just 1-of-4 inside the
Chargers¡¯ 20-yard line when the two teams last met, Tom Brady and company have
to improve in order to put themselves in the best position to be successful.
While L.A. holds the advantage when it comes to goal line success rate, New
England¡¯s offense is the better unit at moving the football between the 11 and
20. It should be a fun battle to watch ¡ª and one that might decide the overall
outcome of the game.Third DownsPatriots offense (l.) vs Chargers defense (r.)The
Chargers defense and Patriots offense are also relative statistical equals when
it comes to third down. Both units perform well in third-and-long situations
with more to seven yards to gain, while Los Angeles holds the edge on
third-and-mediums (from two to six yards out). New England, on the other hand,
should be favored when looking at third-and-short situations. Last year¡¯s
battle, by the way, went just like this year¡¯s numbers would suggest: both teams
won at times leading to a 47% success rate (9 of 19) for the Patriots.Blitz
SituationsPatriots offense (l.) vs Chargers defense (r.)New England is generally
solid when playing from behind the
sticks
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Dawson Jersey , but the Chargers¡¯ offense still holds the statistical edge
in overall success rate and big-play rate. When it comes to sacks in so-called
blitz situations ¡ª 1st and 18 or more, 2nd and 14 or more, and 3rd and 3 or more
¡ª the Patriots have been the better team so far this season, despite Los Angeles
fielding standout pass rushers Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa.Patriots defense vs
Chargers offenseNormal down and distance in the open fieldPatriots defense (l.)
vs Chargers offense (r.)Led by standout quarterback Philip Rivers, the Chargers
offense has been successful in the open field through its first 17 games. It
moves the football well as evidenced by its 48.5% success rate, produces big
plays and keeps drives alive on third down ¡ª and with the exception of the first
category enters the game on Sunday holding an advantage over New England¡¯s
defense.Backed Up Situations Near the Goal LinePatriots defense (l.) vs Chargers
offense (r.)New England¡¯s defense and Los Angeles¡¯ offense are again rather
evenly matched up when it comes to backed-up situations. Both teams are below
their open field success rates and generally middle-of-the-pack. However, all it
takes is one big play to make a difference ¡ª and now would be a good time for
the Patriots to register their first turnover inside the opposing 10-yard line
this season.Red ZonePatriots defense (l.) vs Chargers offense (r.)The Patriots
are no defensive world-beaters in the red zone, but they are generally
performing well ¡ª something that can only partially be said for the Chargers
offense: the unit is solid when it comes to moving the football between the 11
and 20 and when it comes to limiting giveaways, but other than that has been
rather underwhelming. If New England can live up to its statistical advantage in
this part of the field, it would tremendously improve the team¡¯s odds of coming
away victoriously.Third DownsPatriots defense (l.) vs Chargers offense
(r.)Another somewhat even battle is the one between the Patriots¡¯ third down
defense and the Chargers¡¯ third down offense. New England holds a slight edge in
two categories ¡ª third-and-long and third-and-short ¡ª while L.A. has been the
better team this year on third-and-medium. Getting off the field will be a key
for Brian Flores¡¯ group, something it was able to do fairly well last year when
it was still coordinated by Matt Patricia: the unit allowed just 3 of 10 third
downs to be converted (33%).Blitz SituationsPatriots defense (l.) vs Chargers
offense (r.)The Chargers defense is not the only unit on the team to perform
well when finding itself in so-called blitz downs. The offense has also found
success, even when having to play from behind the sticks. With New England
ranking in the bottom half of the NFL¡¯s teams in such situations, we can already
predict that counting L.A. out will not be in the cards on Sunday.All in all,
the Patriots and Chargers are for a reason both in the divisional playoff round:
they are performing generally well in the advanced statistical categories
outlined above. Consequently, they will meet eye-to-eye in two days which in
turn could lead to a close affair. The current odds ¡ª New England is favored by
4 points ¡ª reflect this. Will the game actually live up to what the bookmakers
say? The numbers point to ¡°yes.¡±